New York’s Marquee Sales Can Only Go Up?

New York’s fall marquee week is around the corner and more than $1 billion worth of modern and contemporary art is heading to the salesrooms of Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips.

Since 2023, New York’s marquee weeks in the spring and the fall have been lacklustre despite eye-catching individual lots. On the HENI Auction Index the sales dropped to a D in May 2024 before climbing only to a C- a year ago—a grade they held last May.

One reason for the decline is a steep fall in total revenue generated. On average marquee weeks generated around $2 billion in the past but lately they have totaled less, around $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. That is not the whole story, however.

The HENI Auction Index is a unique measure of auction strength based not just on total revenue but on 10+ metrics. It provides a more nuanced picture of the prestigious New York sales.

Another reason for the marquee weeks’ recent deterioration in auction grades has been the rise in the percentage of weak guarantees and irrevocable bids. The auction houses’ or third-parties’ backing of a lot is deemed weak, if it sells at or below its low estimate.

In May, Christie’s sale of the late bookseller billionaire Leonard Riggio and his wife Louise’s collection was 100% guaranteed and 47% were weak. Their Rothko, Richter and Hepworth were among this type of lots - hammering at or below their low estimates.

Last spring, the number of new artists’ auction records across the three auction houses dropped to the lowest level since Nov 2020.

At Sotheby’s in May the failure of a Giacometti's bronze, Grande tête mince, to sell generated headlines as it had a $70m estimate. Significantly for the auction house, it was not backed by a guarantee.

Overall, the percentages of works bought-in or withdrawn have risen relative to the lows reached in the years 2021-22 but remain roughly in line with the averages of the past 20 seasons.

The number of average bidders per lot has been stable at around 2.7, close to the 2.8 average over the most recent 20 marquee weeks, but far from the highs reached in 2021 and 2022.

History will be made at Sotheby’s come what may as it unveils its new global HQ in the Breuer Building, the former home of the Whitney Museum. Fireworks are expected on the evening of November 18 when former Whitney trustee Leonard Lauder’s art goes under the hammer, followed by a day sale on the 19th.

Lauder's three paintings by Klimt are due to be sold but the highest-value lot with an estimate announced is his $20m-$30m Edvard Munch, Sankthansnatt (Midsummer Night) (1901).

Works collected by casino mogul Elaine Wynne, Chicago businessman Stefan Edlis and from the Kawamura museum in Japan will feature in Christie’s 20th and 21st century sales in New York, which kick off on November 17. Phillips puts its best foot forward in New York on November 19-20.

After a run of underwhelming New York sales, even a modest rebound would lift the HENI Auction Index this November.

Methodology: for how the HENI Auction Index classifies sales, see here